Dissidents shocked after EU labels Egypt Morocco and Tunisia safe countries

Jihad Khaled is not expecting to return to her homeland of Egypt any time soon. Should she do so, the campaigner and dissident is likely to find herself in jail alongside the tens of thousands of other political prisoners incarcerated since President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi seized power in 2013.

Like millions of others from a range of countries, Khaled sought asylum in Europe to escape violence and persecution in her homeland, where her lawyer mother Hoda Abdelmoneim is still languishing in prison.

She was, therefore, shocked to see Egypt listed along six other "safe countries of origin" in new guidelines issued by the European Union (EU) on Wednesday, purportedly aimed at streamlining the processing of asylum claims in the bloc.

"I really do wish Egypt was a safe country. I would be at least living with my family now and wouldn’t have to apply for asylum because I’m also at risk of prison in Egypt due to my activities advocating for political prisoners," Khaled told Middle East Eye. 

"But unfortunately, this is not the situation."

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Two other North African countries - Tunisia and Morocco - were also included on the first EU list of safe countries of origin, alongside India, Colombia, Bangladesh and Kosovo.

EU candidate countries, such as Turkey, would also be considered safe "in principle".  

No 'real risk of serious harm'

In a press release, the European Commission said the new EU list would complement member countries' national lists of safe countries and "support a more uniform application of the concept, which allows Member States to process asylum claims of nationals from countries on the list in an accelerated procedure, on the basis that their claims are unlikely to be successful".

The commission said - citing analysis from the EU Agency for Asylum and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees - that the population of Egypt "does not, in general, face persecution or real risk of serious harm".

Now based in Belgium, Khaled reminded MEE that her 66-year-old mother, a prominent human rights defender and former member of Egypt's National Council of Human Rights, had been imprisoned in the supposedly safe country since November 2018.

After three years in pretrial detention, she was charged with membership of a terrorist group and spreading false news on social media. 

'I really do wish Egypt was a safe country, I would be at least living with my family now and wouldn’t have to apply for asylum'

- Jihad Khaled, activist

"She completed her sentence on 31 October 2023. Then, on the same day that she was supposed to get released, she was listed on a new case with the same charges, which is illegal even under Egyptian law," Khaled said. 

"Now, a year and a half later, she is listed on two cases with the same charges, and we have no idea when this will end because it is very clear that there is no rule of law we can rely on."

Egypt ranks 18th out of 100 countries on Freedom House's "Freedom in the World" index - below Algeria, Iraq and Jordan, none of which were included in the new safe countries list. The country is thought to have more than 60,000 political prisoners.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has described the Egyptian government as being engaged in "wholesale repression, systematically detaining and punishing peaceful critics and activists and effectively criminalising peaceful dissent", while "thousands of detainees remained locked up in dire conditions in lengthy pretrial detention or on sentences stemming from unjust trials".

Samar Elhussieny, executive director of the Egyptian Human Rights Forum, said the EU's conclusion was factually inaccurate and politically dangerous.

"Following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Egypt now holds the highest number of political prisoners in the region, with estimates exceeding 60,000 detainees," she told MEE.

"These are not isolated or exceptional cases; they reflect a deeply entrenched system of repression."

MEE contacted the European Commission for clarification but was told a response could not be provided before publication, as Thursday and Friday were public holidays due to Easter.

Elhussieny pointed to a €7.4bn ($8.42bn) aid package handed by the EU to Egypt in March 2024 as part of an apparent attempt to stymie further migration from North Africa into Europe, a move criticised by rights groups for not attaching conditions or demands for reform.

"In effect, the EU is prioritising short-term migration deterrence over the fundamental rights and safety of countless Egyptians," Elhussieny said. 

"It is a cynical decision and one that may carry devastating humanitarian costs."

Intensifying repression

The EU has spent many years trying to stem the tide of refugees crossing the Mediterranean from North Africa.

In its press release on Wednesday, the commission said the new proposals, which still require approval from the European Parliament and European Council, still advised member states to conduct individual assessments of applications "independently" from whether the person came from one of their designated safe countries of origin or not.  

But rights groups have pointed to widespread human rights abuses in many of those countries listed and implicitly included under the new rules.

Aside from Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia have also faced scrutiny over their treatment of opposition figures and rights campaigners.

On Wednesday, HRW released a report saying that Tunisia is currently facing the worst repression it has seen since 2011, the year pro-democracy activists ousted former President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali.

The organisation documented 22 cases of individuals detained on what it called abusive charges, including terrorism, in connection with their public statements or political activities.

Morocco, for its part, continues to occupy Western Sahara - a territory it fully captured in 1979 - where Sahrawi activists and journalists are regularly imprisoned, attacked by police and subjected to sexual abuse.

Female Sahrawi activists, in particular, have faced severe abuse at the hands of the security services, including rape. 

Recent years have seen thousands of Sahrawis fleeing their homes to neighbouring Algeria after the ceasefire between the Polisario Front independence movement and Morocco fell apart in 2020.

Rights groups have also pointed to arbitrary arrests of Moroccan journalists, activists and lawyers, with many convicted for "defaming" local officials.

"Morocco is no safe place even for Moroccans," said Oubi Bachir, former EU representative for the Polisario Front.

He told MEE that "repression is the dominating policy" in the Sahrawi territories controlled by Morocco.

"Designating Morocco 'a safe country of origin' is unfair," he said, warning that applying the rule to Morocco, which considers Sahrawis under its control Moroccan citizens, was "an open invitation for Morocco to continue its repressive policy condemning the Sahrawis to life in an open-air prison".

Candidate countries 'safe'?

In addition to the seven countries listed as safe, the EU's announcement said the body would consider that candidate countries "in principle, meet the criteria to be designated as safe countries of origin since as part of their EU membership path, they are working towards... guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities".

"A candidate country would be excluded only under certain specific circumstances: indiscriminate violence in conflict situations, sanctions adopted by the [European] Council towards that country, or an EU-wide recognition rate of asylum applicants higher than 20 percent," the EU statement added.

At present, there are nine countries recognised as candidate members, namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine. Concerns have been raised by rights groups about a number of these countries.

Turkey, in particular, has had a range of dissidents living across the EU for decades - mainly leftists, liberal journalists and members and sympathisers of pro-Kurdish organisations.

Repression has also intensified in recent weeks since the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, with thousands detained during banned demonstrations against the arrest. 

'The European Union's classification of Turkey as a 'safe' country endangers individuals and leads to severe human rights violations in the repatriation processes'

- Hayko Bagdat, journalist

Torture in prison and police detention has been described by Amnesty International as "widespread and systematic", while HRW has accused the government of "targeting perceived government critics and political opponents, profoundly undermining the independence of the judiciary, and hollowing out democratic institutions".

The EU was unable to confirm to MEE whether Turkey is explicitly included on the list of "safe" countries due to the Easter weekend holiday.

Hayko Bagdat, an Armenian-Turkish journalist who has lived in Germany since 2016 due to threats and harassment in Turkey, said designating his homeland as a safe country would be a "deeply concerning situation for dissidents, journalists and human rights defenders".

"In recent years, especially following the coup attempt in 2016, Turkey has adopted a repressive approach towards dissenting voices; journalists have been imprisoned, civil society organisations have been shut down and many human rights advocates have been forced to leave the country," he told MEE.

"The European Union's classification of Turkey as a 'safe' country endangers individuals and leads to severe human rights violations in the repatriation processes."

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