As Trump snubs Israel Gulf states flex their lobbying for an Iran deal

US President Donald Trump on Thursday gave the clearest indication yet that his administration is making progress in its indirect talks with Iran to reach a nuclear deal.

“We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” Trump said in Doha, the second leg of his tour of the Gulf.

“We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal,” he said.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped more than two percent to $64.62 per barrel in response to the chance of sanctioned Iranian oil being allowed back on the market.

Trump was expected to be lobbied privately by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to seal a nuclear deal with Iran. His visit has gone even further.

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Gulf diplomats are openly endorsing the nuclear talks, and Trump is crediting his hosts with convincing him to continue negotiations as opposed to following through on preemptive military strikes, as Trump admitted Israel has urged.

Speaking in Doha, Trump referenced a longstanding concern of Qatar that a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites could lead to an environmental catastrophe, potentially by contaminating their water supply. Trump’s remarks suggest that "America First" Republicans have the ear of the US president as they lobby him against striking Iran.

The issue of contamination was addressed at length in a March podcast between Trump media ally Tucker Carlson and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani.

“We're not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran,” Trump said.

“I think we're getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this,” he added, referring to possible military action.

'Big thank you'

Trump also said that Iran should say a “big thank you” to Qatar for lobbying him to strike a deal.

Qatar and Iran share the world’s largest natural gas field. “Iran is very lucky to have the emir [of Qatar] because he is actually fighting for them,” Trump said.

Trump arrived in Doha after a lavish welcome in Saudi Arabia, where he unveiled arms sales and AI deals. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally drove Trump around in a Golf cart.

Speaking in Riyadh, Trump lauded the oil-rich Gulf monarchies as examples of successful states not built by “western interventionists”, a label that many in the US have pinned on those advocating strikes or tougher sanctions on Iran as opposed to a nuclear deal.

The visit spotlighted how Saudi Arabia has pulled ahead as a pivotal regional power and the ramifications of its closeness to Trump.

The US president said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was responsible, along with Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for convincing him to drop all US sanctions on Syria.

Israel had lobbied against the move, according to reports. Trump also met Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa alongside the crown prince.

Trump’s visit underscored how Gulf states are coalescing behind a nuclear deal with Iran. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on Wednesday that the kingdom “fully supports” the nuclear talks.

“If, for instance, the US and Iran can successfully conclude their nuclear negotiations, that will remove a huge burden of risk in our region, and will open up significant avenues for even greater cooperation, greater regional integration, greater region cooperation, trade, investment,” he said, in another clear reference to Trump’s business-first instincts.

The very public lobbying from Saudi Arabia for a nuclear deal reveals just how much the region has transformed in the last decade.

Having the support of Gulf states for a deal this time could have major ramifications. For example, earlier this month, Amwaj media reported that Iranian negotiators floated the idea of hosting a regional uranium enrichment consortium to address US concerns about enrichment. The Iranians said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could help build a new nuclear facility inside Iran. The report said the UAE was open to participating, but Saudi Arabia was more circumspect.

Can Trump overcome Iran hawks?

The Obama administration signed the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. At the time, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel were united in opposition to the deal. They all backed Trump’s 2018 decision to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement and impose “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran.

At the time, Gulf monarchs were also at odds over their different responses to the Arab Spring revolt. Saudi Arabia and the UAE accused Qatar of backing the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement which they see as a threat to their rule. They blockaded Qatar with Trump’s backing.

The Gulf leaders have since moved to patch up ties. Although the UAE and Qatar’s rapprochement is still delicate, ties between Qatar and Saudi Arabia have strengthened. Trump himself alluded to the better relations.

Addressing Qatar’s ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Trump bragged that he just came from visiting the Saudi crown prince, “a friend of yours”.

“You sort of remind me a little bit of each other. Both tall, handsome guys that happen to be very smart… it's good to see all the relationships forming in the Middle East,” he added.

Even with Gulf support, experts warn that sealing a deal is going to be difficult.

“The issue of enrichment is non-negotiable, as is the removal of sanctions,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, after the fourth round of talks between the Islamic Republic and the US.

Israel and members of Trump’s Republican Party say they would allow Iran to have a civilian nuclear programme, but it would not be allowed to enrich any Uranium and must dismantle its nuclear facilities.

Last week, Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, two key Trump allies, called on Trump to bring any nuclear deal to the Senate for ratification. As a treaty, it would require 67 votes to pass. The 2015 Obama deal was not ratified, which is why Trump was able to easily withdraw it and reimpose sanctions.

“If they want the most durable and lasting kind of deal, then they want to bring it to the Senate and have it voted on as a treaty,” Cotton said.

The lawmakers' stated terms are opposed to Iran’s red line on enrichment. They also added extra conditions, saying that any agreement should address Iran’s growing arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Trump has found allies in the region for his deal with Iran, but finding them at home may be the tougher battle.

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