Saudi Arabia: The Deferred Target and Key to the Middle East
Saudi Arabia: The Deferred Target and Key to the Middle East
By: Mohammed Al Hassan M.Nour
As President Trump returns to the White House, Riyadh finds itself in a paradoxical position—courted as a partner yet targeted as an asset. Why Is the Kingdom being handled with care, and what does its future hold?
In the shifting landscape of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia occupies a unique and contradictory position. It stands as both Washington’s indispensable ally and, according to the stated ambitions of the Trump administration, a strategic asset to be ultimately controlled. This paradox explains why the Kingdom remains a “deferred target” in America’s broader strategy for regional domination.
The Strategic Framework: Energy and Fragmentation
To understand the current dynamic, one must first grasp the two pillars of the Trump administration’s Middle East policy. First Is the declared objective of securing control over global energy resources and maritime chokepoints—a category in which Saudi oil fields and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait feature prominently . Second Is the operational methodology: the fragmentation of large, influential Arab states into smaller sectarian and ethnic entities easier to manage.
This second approach echoes concepts outlined in Oded Yinon’s 1982 strategy for Israel, which advocated for the dissolution of regional Arab powers into weaker components. Whether by design or coincidence, the current trajectory aligns with this vision of a balkanized Middle East .
From Defense to Offense: Trump’s New/Old Approach
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in January 2025 brought with it an Immediate shift in tempo. Facing the rise of the BRICS bloc as a challenge to American unipolar dominance, the administration abandoned any pretense of multilateralism in favor of an aggressive “America First” posture.
What followed was not a change in strategy but a radical shift in tactics. The Pentagon was symbolically re-embraced as a “War Department.” Military actions intensified—direct involvement in Gaza, operations in the Caribbean against Venezuela, and the seizure of oil tankers on the high seas. These actions signaled the true beginning of a campaign to control global energy supplies, with Venezuela and Iran serving as the announced targets .
The unannounced targets, however, include the rest of the world’s major reserves—inevitably encompassing the Middle East’s heavyweights: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Libya.
Why Saudi Arabia Is Being Handled Differently
Among these, Saudi Arabia stands apart. It is being approached with a combination of engagement and pressure that differs markedly from the treatment of Caracas or Tehran. Several factors explain this deferral:
- The Key to the Region
Saudi Arabia remains the gatekeeper of the Middle East. Its religious, financial, and diplomatic weight makes it impossible to bypass in any regional arrangement. Any attempt to confront the Kingdom directly would risk unraveling the entire regional order.
- The Palestine Condition
The Kingdom has consistently linked normalization with Israel to progress on the Palestinian issue. Riyadh continues to demand a two-state solution with a viable Palestinian state—a condition Tel Aviv consistently rejects. Until this impasse Is resolved, Saudi cooperation cannot be fully secured .
The Two-Phase Approach: Conciliation Followed by Undermining
The administration’s approach to Saudi Arabia appears to unfold in two distinct phases: first, conciliation and extraction; second, gradual destabilization.
Phase One: The Carrot
Early in his term, Trump employed a dual approach of threat and reward. The message was clear: “We protect you, and you must pay.” But this was quickly followed by gestures of goodwill. The President danced with the Saudis, soothed tensions, and secured billions in investments and arms deals.
Most significantly, Trump publicly accommodated requests from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regarding Syria and Sudan. In an unprecedented break from institutional protocol, Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria—a move that prompted the Crown Prince to applaud openly before cameras. Similarly, Trump declared on air that he would prioritize Sudan, thanking the Saudi leader for bringing the matter to his attention .
Phase Two: The Stick’s Shadow
Despite these gestures, signs of the coming phase are emerging. The promises made regarding Syria appear to have served Israeli interests more than Saudi ones. Rather than stabilizing the region, the power vacuum In Syria allowed Israel to deepen its incursion and dismantle Syrian military capabilities.
On the Palestinian front, no progress has been made on the two-state solution. Washington’s silence on this Issue speaks volumes about whose interests are being prioritized.
The Saudi-Emirati Rift: Orchestrated Fragmentation?
Perhaps the most telling indicator of what lies ahead is the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. What began as a regional disagreement over Yemen has evolved Into a strategic divide that threatens Gulf Cooperation Council unity .
Washington’s refusal to mediate between its two most important Arab allies—aside from Israel—is striking. When the UAE announced Its sudden withdrawal from Yemen, many questioned whether this was an authentic decision or one taken at external urging. The subsequent covert support for the Southern Transitional Council suggests the latter.
This “fraying” of the Gulf bloc fits a recognizable pattern. It was preceded by the isolation of Qatar in 2017. Now, the Saudi-Emirati divide appears to be the opening act of a broader campaign to weaken the Kingdom by dismantling its support system.
The Horn of Africa: A Template for What’s Coming
What unfolds in the Horn of Africa offers a preview of regional dynamics to come. Ethiopia’s assertive posture on the Renaissance Dam, its attempt to secure a naval port by force, and the recognition of Somaliland all serve Israeli strategic interests while creating new fault lines.
Meanwhile, new alignments are forming—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and potentially Pakistan are drawing closer. The question is whether Washington and Tel Aviv will permit such a bloc to consolidate without interference.
Conclusion: Tactical Gains, Strategic Exposure
For now, Saudi Arabia enjoys tactical victories. Investments flow, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives public deference, and Riyadh’s voice carries weight in Washington. But beneath the surface, the groundwork is being laid for a different future.
The ultimate American-Israeli objective remains the neutralization of the Middle East’s key player. Whether this is achieved through a “grand bargain” that extracts final concessions on Palestine, or through the gradual erosion of Saudi Arabia’s regional position, the Kingdom remains, in the long view, a target deferred—not abandoned.
* Independent Analyst.
Feb. the 20th 2026
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